Why it matters
It is the single most common source of false conclusions about what worked.
After an extreme result, the next one tends to land closer to average — with no cause required.
Why it matters
It is the single most common source of false conclusions about what worked.
How to handle it
Before crediting an intervention, ask what would have happened anyway.
Who shaped this idea
From concept to practice
Psipas asks you one small, honest question at a time — and builds the picture from your answers.